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Reassessing the 2019-nCov implications
Recent developments suggest that the spread of the virus might continue around the world before we see some positive newsflow resulting from quarantine measures put in place. Global financial markets have reacted strongly to rising concerns over the spread of novel coronavirus outside of China with a double dip in stocks. Market risks remain to the downside as the earnings outlook remains currently uncertain.
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Although we at Kieger are by no means committed monetarists, this chart lends more credence to the idea that inflation will be moving lower in the next months.
The huge withdrawal of central bank liquidity happening currently is truly “unprecedented” (an otherwise-overused term currently). Despite all of the detailed analysis on the effects of quantitative tightening no one can predict the full impact this will have, but it is certainly not Fed Chair Yellen’s 2017 expectation of “watching paint dry”.
Inflation continues to drive recession worries. US inflation continues to drive recession worries with CPI running at 8.6% YoY in May.
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