Ineichen Research & Management (“IR&M”) is an independent research firm focusing on investment themes related to absolute returns and risk management.

Executive summary

  • GDP growth is around 2.5% and this growth rate is rising. The outlook for the world economy as a whole is positive and estimates average around 3.4% for 2017 and 3.5% for 2018. The US economy grew at a rate of 2.2% in Q2 2017. Not only is the leading economy growing, the growth has been accelerating. Annual growth was 1.3% in Q2 16. The Atlanta Fed Nowcasting model suggests that Q3 2017 growth will be at 2.5% at the time of writing in early October.
  • Business sentiment: Global average business sentiment is stable. From the 21 indicators, 11 have risen over the quarter, while 8 have fallen from June to September. Strongest rises were in France and Switzerland, sharpest falls in the UK and New Zealand.
  • Leading economic indicators (LEI): OECD's main leading economic indicator continued to rise very mildly over the past quarter.
  • Purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) are above 50 and are rising. From the 16 PMI indicators, 14 have risen over the quarter. Only two, those of Spain and Australia, have fallen marginally. The strongest rise was in the United States. The last time that this measure was as high was in 2003. In Europe, PMI indicators for Switzerland, the Eurozone, Germany, France, and Italy are at multi-year highs too.
  • Consumer sentiment: Average consumer sentiment has been rising since February and continues to do so. From the 22 indicators, 15 were higher than three months ago, and only four were lower. The strongest rises were in Italy, Mexico and Greece.
  • Notable: Global consumer sentiment is in the 94th percentile (100th =best) since 1985. This level was last reached in May 2007. (The peak of the S&P 500 Index was in October of that year.) Three regime tests imply that all is well for risky assets.

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