The conflict in the Ukraine is the first war in a fully interconnected world, wired more closely than ever before by trade, supply chains and financial markets. As such, while the drama is occurring within Ukraine’s frontiers, the consequences of Putin’s “special military operation” are being felt across the globe. The US (and pending European) decision to ban Russian oil imports has fueled the commodity rally, playing into worries over global supplies and heightening stagflation concerns. Central banks, however, are still intent on normalising policy. The Fed has initiated its tightening cycle with a 25 bps hike and signaled six further increases in 2022, for what would be the most aggressive policy campaign in decades. And an announcement regarding balance sheet reduction could come as soon as May.