The “black swan” virus
One month ago, markets finally took note of COVID-19 and its critical impact on the global economy. Our Healthcare Investment Team recently published a “Thoughts from the street” piece that provides more details about SARSCoV- 2 treatment developments.
Intense R&D efforts will help us manage and eventually treat the virus. In the meantime, assessing the impact of government containment measures and stimulus packages on the global economy continues to be challenging.
Inflation continues to drive recession worries. US inflation continues to drive recession worries with CPI running at 8.6% YoY in May.
Inflation out of control? You might expect to see an inflation chart like this in an emerging market, but this is happening in the 5th largest economy in the world.
The almighty (and confusing) US consumer. US economic health is intricately tied to consumer behaviour with personal consumption accounting for ~70% of GDP. Predicting whether or not Americans will keep opening their wallets for a new car, a night at a restaurant or a nice vacation has far reaching implications.