The “black swan” virus
One month ago, markets finally took note of COVID-19 and its critical impact on the global economy. Our Healthcare Investment Team recently published a “Thoughts from the street” piece that provides more details about SARSCoV- 2 treatment developments.
Intense R&D efforts will help us manage and eventually treat the virus. In the meantime, assessing the impact of government containment measures and stimulus packages on the global economy continues to be challenging.
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Although we at Kieger are by no means committed monetarists, this chart lends more credence to the idea that inflation will be moving lower in the next months.
The huge withdrawal of central bank liquidity happening currently is truly “unprecedented” (an otherwise-overused term currently). Despite all of the detailed analysis on the effects of quantitative tightening no one can predict the full impact this will have, but it is certainly not Fed Chair Yellen’s 2017 expectation of “watching paint dry”.