The “black swan” virus
One month ago, markets finally took note of COVID-19 and its critical impact on the global economy. Our Healthcare Investment Team recently published a “Thoughts from the street” piece that provides more details about SARSCoV- 2 treatment developments.
Intense R&D efforts will help us manage and eventually treat the virus. In the meantime, assessing the impact of government containment measures and stimulus packages on the global economy continues to be challenging.
After the COVID-induced selloff in March 2020, the US equity market has climbed strongly and steadily to new highs. For the whole of 2021, this has been earnings-driven, rather than multiple expansion.
Halloween Scare? Globally, government bond yield curves have flattened as central banks started signalling the end of the era of ultra-loose monetary policy. But the flattening of yield curves accelerated last week after the UK reduced bond-issuance plans and the Bank of Canada accelerated the time of potential future rate increases.
Certainly not Chairperson Powell’s “knockout, great, super strong employment report” but Still Enough for Fed to Taper. September job growth in the US was underwhelming vs. expectations but still a green light for a Fed taper announcement by year-end.